The history of gold begins in remote antiquity. But without hard archaeological evidence to pinpoint the time and place of man's first happy encounter with the yellow metal, we can only conjecture about those persons, who at various places and at different times first came upon native gold. Experts of fossil study have observed that bits of natural gold were found in Spanish caves allegedly used by the Paleolithic Man about 40,000 B.C. Consequently, it is not surprising that historical sources cannot agree on the precise date that gold was first used. One states that gold's recorded discovery occurred circa 6000 B.C. Another mentions that the pharaohs and temple priests used the relic metal for adornment in ancient Egypt circa 3000 B.C. However, it is curious to note that the early Egyptian's medium of exchange was not gold but barley. The first use of gold as money in 700 B.C. is claimed by the citizens of the Kingdom of Lydia (western Turkey). Surely, you remember the kingdom of the famous fortune seeking King Croesus - circa 550 B.C.

More Recent History
In 1792 the U.S. Congress adopted a bimetallic standard (gold and silver) for the new nation's currency - with gold valued at $19.30 per troy ounce. This remained essentially unchanged until 1834, when the price of gold was raised to the $20.67 level which held for the next 100 years. In March of 1933, President Franklin D. Roosevelt declared a national Bank Holiday, which essentially took gold out of the hand of the citizens of the United States.  Then, in 1934, President Roosevelt devalued the dollar by raising the price of gold to $35 per ounce.

Relative to today's world economic conditions, it is imperative to remember that F.D.R.'s stated purpose for dramatically increasing the value of gold was to boost commodity prices (especially farm products) and create more employment for the millions who were suffering the devastating effects of the Great Depression.

In December 1971 representatives of the ten most industrialized nations met in Washington D.C. It was their express purpose to take whatever measures in order to improve international economic conditions. The now famous Smithsonian Agreement accorded an immediate hike in the value of gold from $35 to $38 per ounce. President Richard Nixon hailed it as "the most significant monetary agreement in the history of the world." Unfortunately, it resulted in a measure too little and too late. International economic conditions continued to deteriorate, forcing the U.S. Government in 1973 to devalue the dollar a second time by raising the official price of gold to $42.22 per ounce. Finally, all international currencies were allowed to "float" freely against gold. By June of that year the London Gold Fixing had risen to an unprecedented $120 per ounce. Exploding demand during the following months set the stage for the creation of gold futures trading on the COMEX in January 1975.

A worldwide feeding frenzy for gold cannonballed its price to an all-time high of $850 per ounce on January 21, 1980. Obviously, speculative excess had carried too far. Since that date the price of gold has been in a downtrend for more than 13 years. Naturally, there have been periods of respite, when prices rebounded slightly. However, on balance the long-term bear market remained intact until April 23, 1993. On that date the June 1993 COMEX Gold futures contract closed at $347.50 - which, in our opinion, heralded a reversal of the 13 year downtrend, and thus the return of Virgil's echo: "Auri Sacra Fames"

Predicting Gold Prices
Baron von Rothschild, creator of one of the most famous financial dynasties of modern times, was once heard to have said that: "He only knows of two men who really understand the true value of gold - an obscure clerk in the basement vault of the Banque de Paris, and one of the directors of the Bank of England. Unfortunately, they disagree!"

Most serious students of international finance share his sense of frustration on the subject. In fact if you were to ask five different monetary analysts to explain why the price of gold moves the way it does, you would most likely get seven distinct answers.

Accurate predictions for the future price of gold are at best an exercise in speculation. Nevertheless, one may establish reasonable and logical criteria for forecasting price expectations -- based upon fundamental, technical and intermarket analysis.

"Seek the wisdom of the most expert minds in your field."

                                                               - Ralph Waldo Emerson